Purple Serf's Crystal Ball: Illiberal Revolutions Realized

Topher Morrison
PurpleSerf.com

Last Feburary, at the beginning of what would later be referred to as the Arab Spring, Purple Serf through our patented Crystal Ball technology, predicted it would not resemble a liberal revolution.  Whatever occurred would be defined locally and radicalized, especially if foreign hands where seen as intervening.  What we have now is Middle East democracy: rough, Islamic and most often - illiberal.  Perhaps Americans can finally see there is no inherent redemptive qualities to democracy as such, after all it still may be called democratic when two wolves and a sheep vote over what's for dinner.


          Today, much to the chagrin of the naive among us and those working for western powers and NGOs who have meddled in the Arab Spring, the fears of Sharia law and rabid Islamism are being realized.  As secular approaches to Middle East governance are being maligned by more fundamentalist victories, the Middle East truly has experienced a revolution - ending up right where they started, exchanging a single tyranny for the tyranny of the majority.  

From "End of History for the Middle East?" Posted Feburary 19th, 2011 at PurpleSerf.com:

"In Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Mauritius, Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, we hope to see the liberal democratic domino effect we never saw [from] Communism, but it seems the wrong dominoes are falling [referring to secular, albeit authoritarian, leaders].  After decades of handpicking dictators and sending in troops to secure "freedom" foreign policy hawks are dreading democracy once again.  The successful ousting of Egypt’s Mubarak and Tunisia’s Zine el Abidine ben Ali leads to what exactly?  This isn’t a calculated ideological uprising based on the violation of inalienable rights and liberties, it is merely because food prices are soaring, jobs are hard to find, and the future is bleak!  

This area of the world is very much in the throws of history, rife with ethnic division, religious intolerance, playboy leadership, and rampant tyranny (both private and public), only now budding with trappings of consumerism and a myriad of ideas regarding the future of their society as people connect to each other via cell phones, email, Twitter, Facebook, You Tube, and Google. Liberalism plays no current role in the Middle East and never has.  If Egypt is the “trend setter” everyone claims it to be then the Middle East will remain right where it is in history stagnating among awkward opinions regarding gender segregation, stoning adulterers, cutting off thieves hands, and capital punishment for those whom convert out of Islam.

It is highly dubious to believe billions of dollars in economic and military aid will soon deliver the Egyptians or anyone in the Middle East for that matter out of these bizarre notions of ideal society.  If the Protestant Reformation and the American Revolution taught us anything it is that real change requires a perfect storm, sometimes doesn’t come for generations, but most assuredly doesn’t come from foreign intervention." 

          Today Tunisia, ground zero for the Arab Spring, successfully completed its first democratic election.  This, in and of itself, is a positive step, however, as time will show democracy is no panacea for Tunisia's ills.  Many of the factors that led to the lurid self immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi still persist.  In fact, if the fears of liberals and secularists are confirmed, the election of an Islamist majority will do much to undermine freedom in what is generally considered a more liberal and moderate Tunisia than the rest of North Africa and the Middle East.  Democracy in the end may lead, as it so often does, to demagogues more interested in enflaming the old passions and fears of the people than freeing them from tyranny and dogma.            


          A poignant example of these lupine decisions in Middle East democracy comes from Libya.  Recently dispatched dictator, Mohammar Ghaddafi and his son haven't been buried within the 24 hours dictated by Islamic law and Ghaddafi's wish, to be buried in his hometown of Sirte, are highly doubted to be honored.  In its first opportunity to follow the rule law (in this case Islamic law) Libyan leadership has proven inept, that is however if you consider Ghaddafi a muslim (or human for that matter); according to the Libyan office of fatwas (religious decrees) Ghaddafi is not.  In the end, NATO has along with its rag-tag band of Al-Qaeda fighters and Libyan revolutionaries successfully ushered in, not a liberal democratic revolution, but Sharia law and this fact is growing more evident by the day.


          In Egypt we have the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood under a military junta which as of yet has not set a date for elections. In Iraq an emboldened and strengthened Moqtada Al-Sader recently returned to Iraq from Iran and partially through his party's influence managed to force Obama's hand in removing US troops.  Secretary of State Hillary Clinton unconvincingly attempted to save face by claiming that the removal of troops did not signal diminished hegemony or commitment in the region.  On the way out Secretary of Defense Leon Penetta reminded the world and the Middle East the US still maintains "40,000 troops" in the region.  Iraq similar to Tunisia insofar as it is another more moderate and secular state looks as though, under the guidence of men like Al-Sadar, may be well on its way back to the fundamentals.