NATO's Ring of Fire: The Eastern Flank, China and the Indian "Linchpin"

Topher Morrison

PurpleSerf.com

Chinese President Hu Jintao

China is a poor juggernaut by most standards, albeit with extraordinary bright spots.  China's rise has been steady since the days of Mao Zedong and if you ask around the developed world most will tell you they believe it's the top economic power reflecting a rising public image rather than a reality.  Americans, for instance, know nearly everything is "Made in China," but most could scarcely fathom the immensity of many of its cities.  In 18 years it is predicted that China will have over 221 cities boasting over 1 million residents.

China is no doubt standing tall these days and looking forward to the day when it, by objective standards, reclaims its historical role as the largest economy in the world.  One of the most ancient cultures on Earth, China is ready to take a position of leadership once again and if not globally, at the very least, within the region.

It's "near peer", the United States, currently enjoying the largest and most advanced economy on Earth with commensurate hegemony, is no doubt watching these developments with much caution and anxiety.

This is a layout of just some of the players involved in the Sino-Russian
containment zone NATO and the U.S. are attempting to install.
The real containment sphere, as it were, is 4-dimensional
 incorporating land, sea, air, space, and the internet.

Eastern Flank, South China Sea

China for one understands the U.S.’s “Global Force for Good” – as the Navy’s advertisement heralds - has held dominion over the Pacific since the end of World War II.  The Chinese Navy has also recently recognized the Obama administration’s focus on the Pacific and away from over a decade in the Middle East.

The Taiwan Straight crisis of 1996, during the Clinton administration, provided China with an impetus for investing in “anti-access, area denial” technologies.  China has since been rapidly developing its own indigenous warfare technologies to ebb American hegemony in the area and secure what it believes are traditional Chinese claims on its peripheries believed to be rich in natural resources.

To that effect China has recently tested a wide range of cutting edge armaments.  The most startling development is referred to as the “Carrier Killer” – the DF-21D – designed to arc into the stratosphere and explode onto the deck of a U.S. carrier.  China has also retrofitted and sea trialed a retired Russian aircraft carrier, debuted its first stealth fighter last August and overall has increased its military expenditures substantially.

Since 2002 China’s submarine fleet, according to the Rand Corporation, has increased from eight to 29.  In 2006 these submarines became so quiet that one was able to surface amidst a small fleet of U.S. subs hitherto undetected, causing quite a stir.  In the darkest of suspicions some have speculated whether the missile seen off the coast of Los Angeles in 2010 was an in-your-face example of this deep threat.

It was recently reported China announced how it would go to war against the U.S. fleet should it feel the need to do so.  By firing multiple missiles at the same time, no doubt deploying the Carrier Killer (when it’s ready), China would prevent U.S. aircraft carriers and their fighter jets from being able to penetrate Chinese territory.

In response, the U.S. Navy is developing long-range carrier drones in the hopes of eventually providing a fleet of pilotless bombers.  The U.S. military and NASA in a partial realization of that goal just test flew the Phantom Eye – “a ginormous, hydrogen powered uber-drone” able to stay in the air for 4 days at an altitude of 65,000 feet.  It is not deployable from an aircraft carrier yet, but you get the picture.

Outside of direct U.S. confrontation the South China Sea is seeing an arms race reminiscent of the Cold War.  It is clear China’s ravenous appetite for natural resources is whetting an appetite for military grade technology.  Defense industries’ top arms dealers are hurrying to meat the demand as the nations of Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore among others were all courted recently in at an international arms expo:

Eastern Flank, The South Pacific

In the final analysis of the Eastern flank surrounding China and Russia, it is important to note that as China’s brown water navy evolves into a long range blue water force U.S. “mutual defense” treaties with the Philippines, Japan and Taiwan will overlap.  But the U.S. is no longer the only player in the region, NATO has just gone global and has expanded into the Pacific, signing a partnership deal with New Zealand.

With thousands of U.S. Marines now being stationed in Australia, its Navy looking forward to access at Port Darwin in the north and more Aussie troop commitments Sec. Gen. Rassmussen’s words weigh heavy on the region.  “Australia and New Zealand may be far away geographically, but they are very close to us in terms of values and commitment. Together, we will discuss how we can come even closer together.”  As the Pacific becomes more crowded the opportunity for butting heads grows by leaps and bounds.

The Indian “Linchpin”

Last weekend Tim Roemer, former ambassador to India, opined in the Washington Post about the improving ties with the largest democracy on the planet – India.  However, rather than elucidate his audience on the economic opportunities first he detailed the U.S. tactical relationship just three paragraphs in.

“Security cooperation has never been better.  The United States and India share unprecedented amounts of highly sensitive intelligence and have started a homeland security dialogue; the United States has joined in more combined defense exercises with India than with any other ally.  Defense sales are at record levels.  We also have historic new collaboration on nuclear nonproliferation issues.” (emphasis supplied)

To be sure, this part of the world is swarming with American Special Forces, in fact, they are in five South Asian countries: Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and India.  The Pentagon says it is “working closely” with India’s elite units, preparing them for showdowns with Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan based militant group blamed for the 2008 Mumbai attacks with ties to the ubiquitous and ever resilient forever enemy – Al-Qaeda.  As NATO nations withdraw troops Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta welcomes a larger role for India in Afghanistan.

As this article was being finished Leon Panetta literally took the words right off the title and affirmed everything we suspected.  While virtually all available geography available is covered in the Pacific Rim the most populous nation with nearly the largest economy outside China remains at an arm’s distance.  It is Panetta’s goal to change that vowing today to expand defense ties with India in order to safeguard the “crossroads” of the global economy.

“For this relationship to truly provide security for this region and for the world, we will need to deepen our defense and security cooperation. This is why I have come to India,” Mr. Panetta told an audience at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses.  While analysts see India preferring some prudent breathing room Panetta sees that the relationship “can and should become more strategic, more practical, and more collaborative.”

Considering China has claimed, at least for now, its own strategic keystone in the partnership with Pakistan and the deep port of Gwadar India might be a little more receptive to U.S. overtures.  According to Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policu Research in New Delhi:

"China is trying to undercut the U.S.'s numerous interests in Pakistan…Gwadar was the linchpin of [the] 'string of pearls' strategy and the latest news adds to that.  India faces a unique challenge that no other country does.  Its two nuclear armed neighbors are closely aligned and are stepping up joint military programs. India will have to step up its deterrent capabilities."

As we have outlined the first chain islands nearest to China, with few exceptions, are within the U.S. envelope, however, the subcontinent is essential to full containment.  Panetta said the new U.S. strategy sought to ““expand [U.S.] military partnerships and [U.S.] presence in the arc extending from the Western Pacific and East Asia into the Indian Ocean region and South Asia…Defense cooperation with India is a linchpin in this strategy.”

It surely is.  Expect India to be in the news more and more.