NATO's Ring of Fire: The Eastern Flank, China and the Indian "Linchpin"

Topher Morrison

PurpleSerf.com

Chinese President Hu Jintao

China is a poor juggernaut by most standards, albeit with extraordinary bright spots.  China's rise has been steady since the days of Mao Zedong and if you ask around the developed world most will tell you they believe it's the top economic power reflecting a rising public image rather than a reality.  Americans, for instance, know nearly everything is "Made in China," but most could scarcely fathom the immensity of many of its cities.  In 18 years it is predicted that China will have over 221 cities boasting over 1 million residents.

China is no doubt standing tall these days and looking forward to the day when it, by objective standards, reclaims its historical role as the largest economy in the world.  One of the most ancient cultures on Earth, China is ready to take a position of leadership once again and if not globally, at the very least, within the region.

It's "near peer", the United States, currently enjoying the largest and most advanced economy on Earth with commensurate hegemony, is no doubt watching these developments with much caution and anxiety.

This is a layout of just some of the players involved in the Sino-Russian
containment zone NATO and the U.S. are attempting to install.
The real containment sphere, as it were, is 4-dimensional
 incorporating land, sea, air, space, and the internet.

Eastern Flank, South China Sea

China for one understands the U.S.’s “Global Force for Good” – as the Navy’s advertisement heralds - has held dominion over the Pacific since the end of World War II.  The Chinese Navy has also recently recognized the Obama administration’s focus on the Pacific and away from over a decade in the Middle East.

The Taiwan Straight crisis of 1996, during the Clinton administration, provided China with an impetus for investing in “anti-access, area denial” technologies.  China has since been rapidly developing its own indigenous warfare technologies to ebb American hegemony in the area and secure what it believes are traditional Chinese claims on its peripheries believed to be rich in natural resources.

To that effect China has recently tested a wide range of cutting edge armaments.  The most startling development is referred to as the “Carrier Killer” – the DF-21D – designed to arc into the stratosphere and explode onto the deck of a U.S. carrier.  China has also retrofitted and sea trialed a retired Russian aircraft carrier, debuted its first stealth fighter last August and overall has increased its military expenditures substantially.

Since 2002 China’s submarine fleet, according to the Rand Corporation, has increased from eight to 29.  In 2006 these submarines became so quiet that one was able to surface amidst a small fleet of U.S. subs hitherto undetected, causing quite a stir.  In the darkest of suspicions some have speculated whether the missile seen off the coast of Los Angeles in 2010 was an in-your-face example of this deep threat.

It was recently reported China announced how it would go to war against the U.S. fleet should it feel the need to do so.  By firing multiple missiles at the same time, no doubt deploying the Carrier Killer (when it’s ready), China would prevent U.S. aircraft carriers and their fighter jets from being able to penetrate Chinese territory.

In response, the U.S. Navy is developing long-range carrier drones in the hopes of eventually providing a fleet of pilotless bombers.  The U.S. military and NASA in a partial realization of that goal just test flew the Phantom Eye – “a ginormous, hydrogen powered uber-drone” able to stay in the air for 4 days at an altitude of 65,000 feet.  It is not deployable from an aircraft carrier yet, but you get the picture.

Outside of direct U.S. confrontation the South China Sea is seeing an arms race reminiscent of the Cold War.  It is clear China’s ravenous appetite for natural resources is whetting an appetite for military grade technology.  Defense industries’ top arms dealers are hurrying to meat the demand as the nations of Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore among others were all courted recently in at an international arms expo:

Eastern Flank, The South Pacific

In the final analysis of the Eastern flank surrounding China and Russia, it is important to note that as China’s brown water navy evolves into a long range blue water force U.S. “mutual defense” treaties with the Philippines, Japan and Taiwan will overlap.  But the U.S. is no longer the only player in the region, NATO has just gone global and has expanded into the Pacific, signing a partnership deal with New Zealand.

With thousands of U.S. Marines now being stationed in Australia, its Navy looking forward to access at Port Darwin in the north and more Aussie troop commitments Sec. Gen. Rassmussen’s words weigh heavy on the region.  “Australia and New Zealand may be far away geographically, but they are very close to us in terms of values and commitment. Together, we will discuss how we can come even closer together.”  As the Pacific becomes more crowded the opportunity for butting heads grows by leaps and bounds.

The Indian “Linchpin”

Last weekend Tim Roemer, former ambassador to India, opined in the Washington Post about the improving ties with the largest democracy on the planet – India.  However, rather than elucidate his audience on the economic opportunities first he detailed the U.S. tactical relationship just three paragraphs in.

“Security cooperation has never been better.  The United States and India share unprecedented amounts of highly sensitive intelligence and have started a homeland security dialogue; the United States has joined in more combined defense exercises with India than with any other ally.  Defense sales are at record levels.  We also have historic new collaboration on nuclear nonproliferation issues.” (emphasis supplied)

To be sure, this part of the world is swarming with American Special Forces, in fact, they are in five South Asian countries: Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and India.  The Pentagon says it is “working closely” with India’s elite units, preparing them for showdowns with Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan based militant group blamed for the 2008 Mumbai attacks with ties to the ubiquitous and ever resilient forever enemy – Al-Qaeda.  As NATO nations withdraw troops Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta welcomes a larger role for India in Afghanistan.

As this article was being finished Leon Panetta literally took the words right off the title and affirmed everything we suspected.  While virtually all available geography available is covered in the Pacific Rim the most populous nation with nearly the largest economy outside China remains at an arm’s distance.  It is Panetta’s goal to change that vowing today to expand defense ties with India in order to safeguard the “crossroads” of the global economy.

“For this relationship to truly provide security for this region and for the world, we will need to deepen our defense and security cooperation. This is why I have come to India,” Mr. Panetta told an audience at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses.  While analysts see India preferring some prudent breathing room Panetta sees that the relationship “can and should become more strategic, more practical, and more collaborative.”

Considering China has claimed, at least for now, its own strategic keystone in the partnership with Pakistan and the deep port of Gwadar India might be a little more receptive to U.S. overtures.  According to Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policu Research in New Delhi:

"China is trying to undercut the U.S.'s numerous interests in Pakistan…Gwadar was the linchpin of [the] 'string of pearls' strategy and the latest news adds to that.  India faces a unique challenge that no other country does.  Its two nuclear armed neighbors are closely aligned and are stepping up joint military programs. India will have to step up its deterrent capabilities."

As we have outlined the first chain islands nearest to China, with few exceptions, are within the U.S. envelope, however, the subcontinent is essential to full containment.  Panetta said the new U.S. strategy sought to ““expand [U.S.] military partnerships and [U.S.] presence in the arc extending from the Western Pacific and East Asia into the Indian Ocean region and South Asia…Defense cooperation with India is a linchpin in this strategy.”

It surely is.  Expect India to be in the news more and more.

Iraq the Iranian Super-state & The Afghan Stalemate

Topher Morrison

PurpleSerf.com

What are we doing?

            Barack Obama having failed to convince the Iraqi government to keep U.S. forces in Iraq pulled the majority of our troops out by Christmas of 2011, but he managed a slim political victory by feigning to keep a popular campaign promise.   Now that our troops have left its obvious what our blood and treasure have purchased – an Iranian Super-state.

            Iran has been able to inject its proxies and influence at all levels of the Iraqi government.  Adding insult to injury recent reports indicate Iran with be strengthening its military ties with Iraq as well.  It is no wonder why Rick Perry in the last debate swore he’d reintroduce American forces immediately.  While its obvious Perry understands what is happening he evidently forgets how we arrived at this point.

            George W. Bush was fond of saying history would be his judge, but I doubt he thought it would judge him so soon.  His ousting of Sunni Sadaam Hussein merely allowed the resurgence of Shia Iraq and therefore the regional realignment in favor of Iran.  What began as a search for WMDs, transformed to building a strong and stable Iraq has all, but resulted in an open alliance with Iran.  All George W. Bush will be remembered for besides abject failure will be reopening Iraqi oil, nationalized since 1973, to private exploration and exploitation – even that is a tenuous accomplishment.

            Barrack Obama’s copycat surge in Afgahnistan has similarly accomplished nothing.  A recent intelligence report surmises the situation in Afghanistan to have reached a stalemate.  The original task of denying Al’Qaeda safe haven was accomplished long ago and no interim goal aside from “winning the peace” was proffered in its place.  The Taliban evidently is the lesser of two evils – occupation or indigenous subjugation; the Afghan people evidently prefer the latter.

             NATO has botched the complicated relationship with Pakistan so much so that it looks as if Pakistan might be seeking security relationships elsewhere namely, China.  Afghanistan meanwhile is mired in corruption as was evidenced by the murder of President Hamid Karzai’s drug running brother and in light of this the Taliban is being viewed in an ironically positive light.  Alas this is the game we chose to enter.

            The War in Afghanistan is the longest in U.S. history and its time we asked the Pentagon, our President and ourselves what we have accomplished.  In light of yet another Abu Ghraib style PR blunder this time at the hands of U.S. Marines, it is hard to see any definitive success after 10 years of fighting.  Osama Bin Laden is dead, we’ve spent trillions its time to come home.

World War 3: Covert, high tech, and still very expensive

Topher Morrison
PurpleSerf.com

Special operations forces span the globe in the War on Terror.  
Photo credit: ABP World Group LTD.

"The Special Operations Command's (SOCOM) overall strength now stands at 60,000.  Of these, some 13,000 were deployed last week in 79 countries."  - Kenneth McGraw, Spokesman for SOCOM, according to The Daily Beast - June 25th, 2011

With Osama Bin Laden now officially dead, the World Wide War on Terror has entered its next phase.  What began with relatively conventional warfare in Afghanistan and Iraq characterized by large troop deployments, aerial "shock and awe" bombardments, and the expensive ancillary civil reconstruction efforts has morphed into a multidimensional high tech operation blending covert and overt tactics extending into "79 countries" around the world.


The US military in Afghanistan allegedly still pursues the "Doctor of Death", Ayman Al Zawahiri, who has purportedly been tapped (by whom or by what mechanism it is not known) to take over as Supreme Ultimate Commander of all disgruntled Islamic radicals around the world (a.k.a Al Qaeda).  Yemen, however, is the US military's growing priority as it plays host to the enigmatic American, Anwar al-Awlaki of Las Cruces, New Mexico, commander of the Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) franchise, and the US' new counterinsurgency warfare lab.


Although GQ noted that a May 5th attempt on al-Awlkai was the "first drone attack in Yemen in a decade" this "lab", according to the Daily Beast last week, is where a "covert war has raged for nearly three years" (keep in mind if this is true, it precedes both the Ft. Hood Shooting and the Christmas Day Bomber both of which al-Awlaki is charged with orchestrating.  Any argument using al-Awlaki and his purported connections with these events as a pretext for intervention in Yemen should be viewed as highly dubious).  


Working in tandem with US trained Yemeni forces is Delta Force, SEAL Team Six, CIA paramilitary groups, the amphibious mini-carrier USS Boxer, its cruise missile laden submarine chaperone, and "an armada of drones many of designs (and sizes) that are still classified."  We can, however, quantify the breadth of this drone army.  According to the New York Times, "from blimps to bugs...the Pentagon now has some 7,000 aerial drones compared with fewer than 50 a decade ago."  With names like Global Hawk, Predator, Reaper, Shadow, popularized names like the "Beast of Kandahar", and deploying nefarious sounding technologies like the "Gorgon Stare" one has to wonder whether the Armies of Freedom are in fact becoming viewed as something else.

Insect drones like this one will be designed

to hide in the shadows while recording in swarms. 

Posted at Wired.com

 A Predator drone armed for action.  
Posted at Wired.com.

As a part of a larger $45 million aid package to Somalia relatively new "Raven" drones are being outsourced in America's ever expanding shadow war to Burundi and Ugandan "peacekeepers" in order to cut costs and diversify the counter terrorism efforts there, according to Danger Room.  While it may seem odd that the US would give up operational control it looks as if the Pentagon is merely riding shotgun on this one as they are to purchase an unspecified $17.7 million aircraft for the US base in Djibouti, ostensibly a staging ground for the aforementioned drone war raging in Yemen.  


The larger portion of the foreign military aid package will be distributed to other corners of the empire, according to the Air Force Times, and will fund and equip foreign security forces with biometric instrumentation, weapons, night vision, armor, etc. in countries like Bangladesh, the Philipines, Maldives, Oman, Malaysia, Kenya, and Mali.  Evidently what we're seeing here is just another routine wealth and weapons transfer in the charitable business of military welfare. 


While some hawks may hem and haw over "cuts" to the defense budget because of a bad economy and the political appeal of austere budgets on Capitol Hill, most recently evidenced in the reduction of DARPA's budget (a paltry 5%), one must keep in mind the grand strategy of wartime finance.  Even though Secretary of Defense Robert Gates humbly claims "as budgets draw down, we have no option but to learn to fight smarter with less" these musings must be consumed while keeping in mind Gates recently ordered the Pentagon to come up with $100 billion in savings and redirected to combat forces (special forces included).  


Dubious statements like "budget draw down[s]" must be balanced with the facts.  Although DARPA may lose $150 million, Obama has on the other hand asked for a 5.7% increase in the Special Operations budget amounting to $6.5 billion on top of $3.5 billion already requested this year.  Therefore, not only is Sec. Gates to funnel massive savings back into various combat theaters around the world, Obama is doubling down on top of it - not exactly austere.  This can, however, be appended to Obama's stimulus package; it takes 19 analysts and one or two pilots to operate a drone's mission from take off to analysis.  If all 7,000 of the Pentagon's drones were called into action it would mean 133k jobs, imagine that!


World War is defined as "war that spans multiple countries on multiple continents, with battles fought in multiple theaters, and last for multiple years" according to Wikipedia.  With the United States officially involved in Pakistan, Yemen, Somolia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and unofficially in the rest of the "79 other [unknown] countries" do we doubt at all that this is in fact a world war?  This is merely the style of war in the 21st century, fought not by proxy, but by small elite forces under the aegis of incredible technology.  The body counts may be lower, but the same principles remain.  One major difference between WWIII and its predecessors, however, is this war is also being fought on American soil so don't be alarmed when a swarm of insect drones accompanies you to a town hall meeting, its for your protection - see "Planes, trains, and automobiles: TSA's ever expanding jurisdiction."


For an excellent documentary on the issue of covert remote controlled war visit "Remote Control War's" Facebook fan page and find out how to watch the mind bending documentary. 


UPDATE 8/8/11:  New article by Al Jazeera details the US military's secret armies.

PAKISTAN UNDER ATTACK, CHINA COULD STEP IN

Topher Morrison
PurpleSerf.com
5/22/11

"Militants" have just attacked a Pakistani naval air base in what the military and government call a "terrorist attack."  PNS Mehran is in the middle of Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and financial capital.  Apparently a group of 10 launched a surprise attack from 3 sides of the base with "small bombs" and "sophisticated weapons" successfully destroying a PC-3 maritime long range patrol craft recently delivered by the US government and killing two members of the Pakistani military.  


Story developing...


Pakistan has suffered 4,350 deaths over the past four years ostensibly due to Taliban attacks, however, threats have increased substantially since Operation Neptune's Spear (code name for the Osama Bin Laden raid) allegedly claimed the life of the Trillion Dollar Man, Osama Bin Laden.


Neptune's Spear has come under intense criticism on multiple fronts including the days of contradictory information following the raid, the violation of Pakistani sovereignty, the summary execution of the most important intelligence asset in the War on Terror, the quick disposal of OBL's body, the convenient treasure trove of incriminating and embarrassing information, but most importantly the timing and nature of the raid itself has raised questions of the US' real intentions. 


Today's attack would be of relatively little import given the history of attacks on Pakistan's government and military had the Sunday Express not reported Obama's defensive/antagonistic posture on May 15th:

“US troops will be deployed in Pakistan if the nation’s nuclear installations come under threat from terrorists out to avenge the killing of Osama Bin Laden… The plan, which would be activated without President Zardari’s consent, provoked an angry reaction from Pakistan officials… Barack Obama would order troops to parachute in to protect key nuclear missile sites. These include the air force’s central Sargodha HQ, home base for nuclear-capable F-16 combat aircraft and at least 80 ballistic missiles.”


While thousands of Pakistanis have protested the US-Pakistan War on Terror the US nonetheless maintains its "right" to defend itself against potential aggressors.  More specifically the protests emphasize the scores of attacks from unmanned drone aircraft and fluctuating support from the Pakistani military resulting in countless civilian deaths and exacerbation of the atrocious failed/police state that is Pakistan.  


Under what circumstances Obama is willing to deploy troops in order secure Pakistan's weapons of mass destruction remains to be seen, however, what we do know has been revealed in the recent Neptune's Spear operation.  The means is there, the will has been articulated, all that is left is the right opportunity - contrived or otherwise.


The stealth helicopter "ditched" in Abottobad during the raid has been vetted by expert aviation blogs all over the internet and its technologies have been corroborated to be at least more than possible given evidence from around the world.  The US has the now proven its stealthy ability to pierce far into Pakistani territory and execute major operations.  This operation outside of its official objective of killing OBL has effectively embarrassed the intelligence services of Pakistan as either complicit or negligent in allowing OBL to live right under their military's nose.  The mission resulted in top level resignations and if what I describe next is true Operation Neptune's Spear was alternatively about sending a signal to Pakistan that it was still under US supervision.  


The alternative narrative to what has been proffered by the Obama administration and the mainstream media begins with Prince Bandar's (remember "Bandar Bush") visit to Pakistan in March.  According to geopolitical experts and The Envoy the Saudi national security chief visited Pakistan in a possible effort to establish new alternative security arrangements given the lack of support the US offered Egypt in the ousting of Mubarak, in other words, bring Saudi Arabia under the Pakistani nuclear umbrella or acquire the nukes which the Saudi regime essentially underwrote.  This is very different than what was publicly speculated; that Saudi Arabia wanted Pakistani military support not only for Riyadh, but for other Sunni Gulf allies such as Bahrain.  


While both could be true the former is of prime interest here especially given the recent warnings by China 3 days ago that "warned in unequivocal terms that any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China." 


Will the Obama administration or NATO for that matter continue their bellicosity in the face of Chinese intervention?  This recent attack is exactly what the Obama administration purports to fear - militants successfully commandeering a Pakistani military establishment and either launching or stealing nuclear material.  Will Obama test China's new emboldened position?  Does the support of China now flow through to Saudi Arabia via Pakistan?  What does this mean geopolitically?  


More of the same - global realignment.


UPDATE: 5/26/11


China asked to build naval base at Gwadar, Pakistan thereby extending the "String of Pearls."

From the Alex Jones show 5/24/11 with Dr. Webster Griffen Tarpley.